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DRBL systems
How DRBL works
DRBL watches each possession’s expected scoring value change, credits players when the play-by-play supports it, then turns that into a rate (DRBL/100) and a season total (WAR1).
Why it matters
- Player pages answer “how good?” without teaching the model. This page is for fans who want the possession story.
- Formulas make more sense after the basketball sequence is clear.
How to interpret it
- A possession starts with an expected scoring value (what you’d typically get from that situation).
- Shots, passes, turnovers, fouls, and other logged actions move that expectation up or down.
- When the public play-by-play clearly ties a change to a player, DRBL credits them.
- Those credits build a per-possession rate (shrunk for small samples) and a season pile-up above the R1 baseline.
How DRBL uses it
- Credits are measured against a role-matched R1 expected-points baseline.
- DRBL/100 is that rate, pulled toward zero when the sample is small.
- WAR1 is the season total (R1 Points) converted into win-style units.