Marvin Bagley III

DETC

WASC

6'10"235 lb

Born 1999-03-14 (Age: 24)Pre-NBA: Duke

2018Rd 1Pk 2SAC

Per game average

Season	PPG	APG	RPG	TS%
2026-27	-	-	-	-
2025-26	10.5	1.4	6.1	66.1%
2024-25	4.4	0.4	2.7	56.0%
2023-24	11.7	1.1	6.2	62.9%
2022-23	12.0	0.9	6.4	58.7%

Upcoming games

Scores

2026-27 · DEN

Joined the Wizards in a trade with the Pistons on Jan 14, 2024. How they got him

2023-24 percentile ranking

18-1925-26

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Overview Sentiment Game Logs Career Splits Shooting Advanced On/Off Game Highs

Season stats

Career trend + season grid. Click a season to open that year’s game log.

Season	Tm	G	PTS	AST	TRB	MP	ORB	DRB	TOV	PF
2025-26	WAS/DAL	60	10.5	1.4	6.1	20.0	2.5	3.6	1.0	2.1
2024-25	WAS/MEM	31	4.4	0.4	2.7	8.5	1.2	1.5	0.4	0.6
2023-24	DET/WAS	50	11.7	1.1	6.2	21.1	2.6	3.6	1.2	1.6
2022-23	DET	42	12.0	0.9	6.4	23.6	2.2	4.2	1.1	1.9
2021-22	SAC/DET	48	11.3	0.8	7.0	24.0	2.2	4.9	0.8	1.9
2020-21	SAC	43	14.1	1.0	7.4	25.9	2.5	4.9	1.4	2.3
2019-20	SAC	13	14.2	0.8	7.5	25.7	2.2	5.2	1.4	3.3
2018-19	SAC	62	14.9	1.0	7.6	25.3	2.6	5.0	1.6	1.9

Showing regular season · 8 columns. Switch category or scroll sideways for more.

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Contract

$2.4M over 2026-27 only · $2.4M guaranteed

DEN payroll

Projected surplus

+$13.4M

80% range -$1.2M to +$30.0M

Estimated worth

$15.9M

Against $2.4M in salary

Among contracts

78th percentile

By total surplus, of 407 we can estimate

Projected to be worth more than his salary this season.

Surplus

2026-27Paid $2.4M, worth about $15.9M (likely $1.3M to $32.5M)

Salary
Estimated worth
Likely range (80%)
Gain or loss

Season	Salary	Est. worth	80% range	Surplus	Notes
2026-27	$2.4M	$15.9M	$1.3M–$32.5M	+$13.4M	—

Worth is projected from DRBL wins over 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 (10,824 possessions). Surplus is worth minus salary, after options.

Signed 1-yr minimum contract July 15, 2026.

How this works

Worth is what his projected DRBL wins would cost on the open market. We count wins above a minimum-salary player in the same minutes and price them at what teams paid per DRBL win from 2020-21 to 2025-26: 9.8% of the cap, about $16.2M in 2026-27.

Projections weight his last 3 seasons 3, 2 and 1, newest first, and pull toward what players at his salary usually produce, then adjust for age. Playing time comes from recent minutes, age and salary, since teams play the players they pay. A season lost to injury still pulls the playing time down.

Surplus is worth minus salary. A team can always bench a player, so worth never drops below the minimum salary. A player option leaves the team only the downside, because he walks when he could earn more. A team option or a non-guaranteed year leaves only the upside.

To test it, we refit the model three times, each with only the seasons through 2022-23, 2023-24 or 2024-25, valued what players were actually paid afterward, and compared with what they did. The typical miss the next season was 0.91 wins, against 1.09 for assuming a player repeats his last season. Three seasons out it was 1.18 wins, against 1.54. 12% of players beat the top of the range. Fewer than 2% fell below the bottom, since worth can't drop under the minimum salary.

Cap figures after 2026-27 assume 5.8% growth a year, the recent average. The percentile compares total surplus across the 407 current contracts we can estimate.

Similar players

Closest 2023-24 profiles, historical lookalikes across eras, and nearest comps by metric. This is not a new rating. Switch chips to change the lens.

Closest profiles this season

Myles Turner2023-24
9 gapCompare
Why DRBL D -21 · AST% -14 · USG +9
John Collins2023-24
9 gapCompare
Why DRBL D -33 · AST% -17 · TS -5
Mark Williams2023-24
9 gapCompare
Why USG -24 · AST% -12 · TRB% +10
Chet Holmgren2023-24
10 gapCompare
Why AST% +21 · DRBL D +17 · WAR1 +13

Closest profiles historically

Deandre Ayton2022-23
7 gapCompare
Why DRBL O -11 · USG +10 · AST% +8
Keldon Johnson2025-26
7 gapCompare
Why TRB% -15 · WAR1 +14 · DRBL D +12
Bol Bol2024-25
9 gapCompare
Why WAR1 -24 · DRBL O -16 · TRB% -13
Tyrone Hill1996-97
10 gapCompare
Why USG -24 · AST% -10 · TRB% +5

Profile distance is the average percentile gap across impact, true shooting, usage, assist rate, rebound rate, and DRBL O/D when present. Lower gap is closer. Other chips are nearest on that one stat. Open full player compare

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Ask DRBL about Marvin Bagley III

Prefills supported peak, rank, season-board, and compare queries only.

Season	Age	Tm	Pos	G	GS	Impact												Profile								Shooting														Defense								Hustle						Advanced
Season	Age	Tm	Pos	G	GS	DARKO	DARKO-O	DARKO-D	RAPTOR	O-RAPTOR	D-RAPTOR	WAR	WAR1	VORP	DRBL/100	DRBL-O	DRBL-D	MP	PTS	TRB	ORB	DRB	AST	TOV	PF	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	eFG%	TS%	STL	BLK	STL%	BLK%	DRB%	DRtg	DBPM	DWS	Defl	Contest	ScrAst	Chrg	Loose	BoxOut	3PAr	FTr	USG%	TOV%	AST%	ORB%	TRB%	AST/TO	ORtg	NET	PER	OWS	WS	WS/48	OBPM	BPM
2025-26	26	WAS/DAL	PF	60	12	-0.44	-0.54	0.10	-	-	-	-	1.5	0.8	0.9	3.2	-1.2	20.0	10.5	6.1	2.5	3.6	1.4	1.0	2.1	4.2	6.9	61.8%	0.4	0.9	46.2%	3.8	6.0	64.1%	1.6	2.4	66.0%	64.7%	66.1%	0.5	0.7	1.1%	3.1%	19.3%	116.0	-1.0	0.8	1.0	6.0	3.0	0.1	0.4	1.2	12.7%	0.350	18.6%	11.4%	10.8%	13.2%	16.3%	1.40	130.0	14.0	20.2	3.0	3.8	0.150	1.8	0.8
2024-25	25	WAS/MEM	PF	31	2	-1.09	-0.68	-0.41	-	-	-	-	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	8.5	4.4	2.7	1.2	1.5	0.4	0.4	0.6	1.8	3.4	51.9%	0.1	0.6	15.8%	1.7	2.8	59.8%	0.7	1.1	65.7%	53.3%	56.0%	0.3	0.3	1.6%	2.7%	18.2%	114.0	-1.6	0.2	0.3	2.9	0.7	0.0	0.2	0.5	17.9%	0.330	20.9%	9.0%	6.5%	15.0%	16.6%	1.00	125.0	11.0	18.4	0.4	0.6	0.108	0.4	-1.2
2023-24	24	DET/WAS	C	50	25	-1.90	-1.34	-0.56	-	-	-	-	1.3	0.4	0.8	3.0	-1.0	21.1	11.7	6.2	2.6	3.6	1.1	1.2	1.6	4.8	8.2	58.6%	0.2	0.5	39.1%	4.6	7.7	59.7%	1.9	2.5	76.2%	59.7%	62.9%	0.4	0.7	0.9%	2.6%	19.2%	118.0	-1.4	0.7	0.8	7.0	2.8	0.2	0.5	1.6	5.6%	0.309	21.0%	11.3%	8.1%	13.1%	16.1%	0.92	123.0	5.0	19.4	2.0	2.7	0.122	1.0	-0.4
2022-23	23	DET	C	42	25	-2.24	-1.16	-1.08	-	-	-	-	0.0	0.3	-	1.5	-1.5	23.6	12.0	6.4	2.2	4.2	0.9	1.1	1.9	4.8	9.1	52.9%	0.5	1.6	28.8%	4.3	7.5	57.9%	1.9	2.6	75.0%	55.4%	58.7%	0.5	0.7	0.9%	2.7%	20.2%	118.0	-1.2	0.7	0.9	7.0	2.2	0.0	0.5	0.9	17.3%	0.283	20.4%	9.7%	5.9%	10.2%	15.1%	0.82	117.0	-1.0	17.2	1.3	2.0	0.095	0.3	-0.9
2021-22	22	SAC/DET	PF	48	25	-2.08	-0.52	-1.56	-1.01	-0.85	-0.16	1.01	-0.1	-0.1	-0.0	1.0	-1.1	24.0	11.3	7.0	2.2	4.9	0.8	0.8	1.9	4.7	9.3	50.4%	0.5	2.0	23.7%	4.2	7.3	57.9%	1.4	2.1	66.3%	53.0%	55.1%	0.5	0.4	0.9%	1.4%	22.7%	114.0	-1.8	0.9	0.6	7.3	1.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	21.7%	0.226	19.8%	7.4%	5.2%	9.7%	16.0%	1.00	115.0	1.0	15.7	1.2	2.0	0.084	-0.5	-2.3
2020-21	21	SAC	PF	43	42	-2.77	-1.28	-1.49	-2.55	-2.01	-0.55	0.11	-0.6	-0.3	-0.4	0.8	-1.6	25.9	14.1	7.4	2.5	4.9	1.0	1.4	2.3	5.7	11.4	50.4%	0.9	2.5	34.3%	4.8	8.9	55.0%	1.8	3.1	57.5%	54.2%	55.4%	0.5	0.5	0.9%	1.6%	21.5%	117.0	-2.7	0.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	22.0%	0.273	23.5%	9.7%	5.8%	10.4%	15.9%	0.71	109.0	-8.0	16.3	0.9	1.4	0.059	-0.4	-3.1
2019-20	20	SAC	C	13	6	-1.71	-0.20	-1.51	-	-	-	-	-	-0.1	-	-	-	25.7	14.2	7.5	2.2	5.2	0.8	1.4	3.3	6.0	12.8	46.7%	0.3	1.7	18.2%	5.7	11.1	51.0%	1.9	2.4	80.6%	47.9%	51.2%	0.5	0.9	0.9%	3.4%	23.5%	111.0	-1.4	0.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	13.2%	0.186	25.8%	9.1%	4.9%	9.5%	16.3%	0.57	102.0	-9.0	15.6	-	0.4	0.051	-2.2	-3.5
2018-19	19	SAC	PF	62	4	-1.68	-1.39	-0.29	-2.87	-1.07	-1.81	-0.10	-	0.4	-	-	-	25.3	14.9	7.6	2.6	5.0	1.0	1.6	1.9	5.7	11.4	50.4%	0.5	1.5	31.3%	5.2	9.9	53.4%	2.9	4.2	69.1%	52.5%	56.2%	0.5	1.0	1.0%	3.2%	20.8%	110.0	-1.5	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	13.6%	0.371	24.2%	10.7%	5.9%	10.4%	15.5%	0.63	111.0	1.0	18.9	2.0	3.6	0.110	0.5	-1.0

Marvin Bagley III

2023-24 percentile ranking