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Prefills supported peak, rank, season-board, and compare queries only.
$2.2M over 2026-27 only
Projected surplus
+$3.7M
80% range $0.0M to +$11.9M
Estimated worth
$5.5M
Against $2.2M in salary
Projected to be worth more than his salary this season.
| Season | Salary | Est. worth | 80% range | Surplus | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27Not guaranteed | $2.2M | $5.5M | $1.3M–$14.1M | +$3.7M | Not guaranteed |
Worth is projected from DRBL wins over 2025-26 (2,178 possessions). Surplus is worth minus salary, after options.
Claimed by MIA September 22, 2026. Waived September 20, 2026. Signed Exhibit 10 contract September 8, 2026.
Worth is what his projected DRBL wins would cost on the open market. We count wins above a minimum-salary player in the same minutes and price them at what teams paid per DRBL win from 2020-21 to 2025-26: 9.8% of the cap, about $16.2M in 2026-27.
Projections weight his last 3 seasons 3, 2 and 1, newest first, and pull toward what players at his salary usually produce, then adjust for age. Playing time comes from recent minutes, age and salary, since teams play the players they pay. A season lost to injury still pulls the playing time down.
Surplus is worth minus salary. A team can always bench a player, so worth never drops below the minimum salary. A player option leaves the team only the downside, because he walks when he could earn more. A team option or a non-guaranteed year leaves only the upside.
To test it, we refit the model three times, each with only the seasons through 2022-23, 2023-24 or 2024-25, valued what players were actually paid afterward, and compared with what they did. The typical miss the next season was 0.91 wins, against 1.09 for assuming a player repeats his last season. Three seasons out it was 1.18 wins, against 1.54. 12% of players beat the top of the range. Fewer than 2% fell below the bottom, since worth can't drop under the minimum salary.
Cap figures after 2026-27 assume 5.8% growth a year, the recent average. The percentile compares total surplus across the 406 current contracts we can estimate.
The 2026-27 lines start after opening night, Oct 20. Every player begins at 0 and climbs as his play covers his salary. See how 2025-26 finished
Closest 2025-26 profiles, historical lookalikes across eras, and nearest comps by metric. This is not a new rating. Switch chips to change the lens.
Closest profiles this season
Why TS +24 · WAR1 -15 · TRB% +12
Why USG +22 · WAR1 -17 · AST% -9
Why USG +23 · TS -20 · AST% -16
Why USG +34 · DRBL O +11 · DRBL D -10
Closest profiles historically
Why TS -6 · USG +5 · AST% -4
Why TS -19 · DRBL D +12 · AST% +8
Kris Dunn2023-24Why AST% +24 · TRB% +23 · USG +11
Profile distance is the average percentile gap across impact, true shooting, usage, assist rate, rebound rate, and DRBL O/D when present. Lower gap is closer. Other chips are nearest on that one stat. Open full player compare
