Nickeil Alexander-Walker

6'5"205 lb

Born 1998-09-02 (Age: 27)Pre-NBA: Virginia Tech

2019Rd 1Pk 17BKN

Per game average

Season	PPG	APG	RPG	TS%
2026-27	-	-	-	-
2025-26	20.8	3.7	3.4	61.0%
2024-25	9.4	2.7	3.2	57.9%
2023-24	8.0	2.5	2.0	57.8%
2022-23	6.2	1.8	1.7	56.5%

Upcoming games

Scores

2026-27 · ATL

Joined the Hawks in a trade with the Timberwolves on Jul 6, 2025. How they got him

2025-26 percentile ranking

19-2025-26

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Overview Sentiment Game Logs Career Splits Shooting Advanced On/Off Game Highs

Season stats

Career trend + season grid. Click a season to open that year’s game log.

Season	Tm	G	PTS	AST	TRB	MP	ORB	DRB	TOV	PF
2025-26	ATL	78	20.8	3.7	3.4	33.4	0.7	2.8	2.1	2.2
2024-25	MIN	82	9.4	2.7	3.2	25.3	0.7	2.6	1.2	1.7
2023-24	MIN	82	8.0	2.5	2.0	23.4	0.4	1.6	0.9	1.7
2022-23	UTA/MIN	59	6.2	1.8	1.7	15.0	0.3	1.5	0.9	1.5
2021-22	NOP/UTA	65	10.6	2.4	2.9	22.6	0.6	2.3	1.4	1.6
2020-21	NOP	46	11.0	2.2	3.1	21.9	0.3	2.8	1.5	1.9
2019-20	NOP	47	5.7	1.9	1.8	12.6	0.2	1.6	1.1	1.2

Showing regular season · 8 columns. Switch category or scroll sideways for more.

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Contract

$45.5M over 3 seasons through 2028-29 · $29.6M guaranteed

ATL payroll

Projected surplus

+$16.2M

80% range -$41.4M to +$83.5M

Estimated worth

$73.2M

Against $45.5M in salary

Among contracts

81st percentile

By total surplus, of 406 we can estimate

Worth more than his salary in 2 of 3 seasons. The edge shrinks over the deal.

Surplus

2026-27Paid $14.4M, worth about $27.2M (likely $1.3M to $58.0M)

Salary
Estimated worth
Likely range (80%)
Gain or loss
Grey where option terms flip the surplus

Season	Salary	Est. worth	80% range	Surplus	Notes
2026-27	$14.4M	$27.2M	$1.3M–$58.0M	+$12.8M	—
2027-28	$15.2M	$24.3M	$1.4M–$55.1M	+$9.1M	—
2028-29Player option	$15.9M	$21.8M	$1.4M–$52.2M	-$5.7M	Player option

Worth is projected from DRBL wins over 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 (27,513 possessions). Surplus is worth minus salary, after options.

2028-29 is a player option. Signed 4-yr/$62M contract July 6, 2025 with MIN and immediately traded to ATL.

How this works

Worth is what his projected DRBL wins would cost on the open market. We count wins above a minimum-salary player in the same minutes and price them at what teams paid per DRBL win from 2020-21 to 2025-26: 9.8% of the cap, about $16.2M in 2026-27.

Projections weight his last 3 seasons 3, 2 and 1, newest first, and pull toward what players at his salary usually produce, then adjust for age. Playing time comes from recent minutes, age and salary, since teams play the players they pay. A season lost to injury still pulls the playing time down.

Surplus is worth minus salary. A team can always bench a player, so worth never drops below the minimum salary. A player option leaves the team only the downside, because he walks when he could earn more. A team option or a non-guaranteed year leaves only the upside.

To test it, we refit the model three times, each with only the seasons through 2022-23, 2023-24 or 2024-25, valued what players were actually paid afterward, and compared with what they did. The typical miss the next season was 0.91 wins, against 1.09 for assuming a player repeats his last season. Three seasons out it was 1.18 wins, against 1.54. 12% of players beat the top of the range. Fewer than 2% fell below the bottom, since worth can't drop under the minimum salary.

Cap figures after 2026-27 assume 5.8% growth a year, the recent average. The percentile compares total surplus across the 406 current contracts we can estimate.

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Closest profiles historically

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Profile distance is the average percentile gap across impact, true shooting, usage, assist rate, rebound rate, and DRBL O/D when present. Lower gap is closer. Other chips are nearest on that one stat. Open full player compare

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Ask DRBL about Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Prefills supported peak, rank, season-board, and compare queries only.

Season	Age	Tm	Pos	G	GS	Impact												Profile								Shooting														Defense								Hustle						Advanced
Season	Age	Tm	Pos	G	GS	DARKO	DARKO-O	DARKO-D	RAPTOR	O-RAPTOR	D-RAPTOR	WAR	WAR1	VORP	DRBL/100	DRBL-O	DRBL-D	MP	PTS	TRB	ORB	DRB	AST	TOV	PF	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	eFG%	TS%	STL	BLK	STL%	BLK%	DRB%	DRtg	DBPM	DWS	Defl	Contest	ScrAst	Chrg	Loose	BoxOut	3PAr	FTr	USG%	TOV%	AST%	ORB%	TRB%	AST/TO	ORtg	NET	PER	OWS	WS	WS/48	OBPM	BPM
2025-26	27	ATL	SG	78	71	-0.27	-0.37	0.10	-	-	-	-	2.9	2.1	0.9	2.5	-0.7	33.4	20.8	3.4	0.7	2.8	3.7	2.1	2.2	7.0	15.3	45.9%	3.2	8.1	39.9%	3.8	7.2	52.5%	3.6	3.9	90.2%	56.4%	61.0%	1.3	0.5	1.9%	1.5%	9.1%	116.0	-0.4	2.7	3.5	3.3	0.5	0.1	0.7	0.5	52.6%	0.257	23.9%	10.9%	15.8%	2.1%	5.6%	1.76	117.0	1.0	16.5	3.6	6.3	0.116	1.6	1.2
2024-25	26	MIN	SG	82	10	0.57	-0.30	0.87	-	-	-	-	-0.1	0.8	-0.0	0.4	-0.5	25.3	9.4	3.2	0.7	2.6	2.7	1.2	1.7	3.3	7.5	43.8%	1.7	4.5	38.1%	1.6	3.0	52.4%	1.1	1.4	78.0%	55.3%	57.9%	0.6	0.4	1.2%	1.5%	11.1%	114.0	0.4	2.3	2.1	2.2	0.3	0.0	0.5	0.5	60.1%	0.192	16.0%	12.9%	15.0%	2.9%	7.1%	2.25	116.0	2.0	11.6	2.0	4.3	0.099	-0.8	-0.4
2023-24	25	MIN	SG	82	20	-1.03	-1.08	0.05	-	-	-	-	0.8	1.1	0.3	0.6	0.1	23.4	8.0	2.0	0.4	1.6	2.5	0.9	1.7	2.9	6.6	43.9%	1.6	4.1	39.1%	1.3	2.5	51.7%	0.6	0.8	80.0%	56.0%	57.8%	0.8	0.5	1.6%	1.9%	7.5%	111.0	1.3	2.8	1.9	2.9	0.2	0.1	0.5	0.5	62.3%	0.121	14.8%	11.8%	14.5%	2.2%	4.9%	2.78	115.0	4.0	10.9	1.5	4.3	0.107	-1.1	0.2
2022-23	24	UTA/MIN	SG	59	3	-1.59	-1.07	-0.51	-	-	-	-	-0.5	0.2	-0.4	-0.5	-0.4	15.0	6.2	1.7	0.3	1.5	1.8	0.9	1.5	2.2	5.0	44.4%	1.0	2.7	38.4%	1.2	2.3	51.5%	0.7	1.0	66.7%	54.7%	56.5%	0.5	0.4	1.7%	2.0%	10.5%	116.0	0.4	0.8	1.3	2.0	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	53.9%	0.203	17.9%	14.6%	16.7%	1.9%	6.3%	2.00	106.0	-10.0	11.6	0.3	1.1	0.062	-1.4	-0.9
2021-22	23	NOP/UTA	SG	65	21	-1.23	-0.89	-0.34	-3.00	-1.77	-1.22	-0.20	-2.5	-0.3	-1.3	-2.6	-0.4	22.6	10.6	2.9	0.6	2.3	2.4	1.4	1.6	3.9	10.5	37.2%	1.6	5.2	31.1%	2.3	5.3	43.3%	1.2	1.7	74.3%	44.9%	47.5%	0.7	0.4	1.5%	1.5%	11.5%	110.0	-1.1	1.1	1.7	3.1	0.2	0.0	0.5	0.4	49.7%	0.160	24.1%	11.3%	16.1%	2.7%	7.1%	1.71	105.0	-5.0	10.5	-1.1	0.1	0.003	-1.8	-2.9
2020-21	22	NOP	SG	46	13	-2.08	-1.14	-0.94	-0.64	-1.33	0.69	1.09	-0.4	0.2	-0.2	-1.0	0.4	21.9	11.0	3.1	0.3	2.8	2.2	1.5	1.9	4.2	10.0	41.9%	1.7	4.8	34.7%	2.5	5.2	48.5%	1.0	1.4	72.7%	50.2%	52.2%	1.0	0.5	2.2%	2.1%	14.1%	112.0	0.1	1.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	47.8%	0.144	23.2%	12.4%	14.7%	1.4%	7.8%	1.47	101.0	-11.0	12.5	-0.3	0.7	0.035	-1.4	-1.3
2019-20	21	NOP	SG	47	1	-2.16	-1.71	-0.46	-3.23	-1.52	-1.71	-0.14	-	-0.4	-	-	-	12.6	5.7	1.8	0.2	1.6	1.9	1.1	1.2	2.1	5.7	36.8%	1.0	2.8	34.6%	1.1	2.9	39.1%	0.5	0.8	67.6%	45.5%	47.3%	0.4	0.2	1.3%	1.1%	13.5%	113.0	-1.4	0.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	50.0%	0.139	23.3%	16.1%	21.1%	1.6%	7.5%	1.73	93.0	-20.0	8.9	-0.7	-0.2	-0.020	-3.2	-4.6

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

2025-26 percentile ranking