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How BOS played per 100 possessions with Al Horford on the floor and off it. 2023-24 regular season, 65 games played.
On/off swing
+0.4
95% range −7.3 to +8.0
On net
+11.5
Off net
+11.2
Luck-adjusted
−1.0
Opponent 3P% and FT% at league average
On the floor
45%
1,717 min, 6,925 poss
The team was 0.4 points per 100 possessions better with Horford on the floor. His teammates averaged +0.49 DRBL/100 with him on the floor, against +0.46 for the lineups that played while he sat. Opponents averaged +0.15 against him and +0.15 otherwise. Stronger teammates lift the on number and stronger opponents pull it down.
Offense
Points scored per 100
Defense
Points allowed per 100
Net
Offense minus defense
Net, luck-adjusted
Opponent shooting luck removed
Game 82, Apr 14 vs WAS (did not play): +0.4 to date, 6,925 poss on, 8,402 off
Each point is his swing from the team's first game through that one. Ticks along the bottom mark the 65 games he played. The line starts once he has 250 possessions on and off, since early values swing wildly.
| Season | Team | GP | Poss | Swing | 95% range | Luck adj. | League pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | GSW | 45 | 4,028 | −0.7 | −9.3 to +7.9 | +0.2 | 41st |
| 2024-25 | BOS | 60 | 6,656 | +3.9 | −3.9 to +11.7 | −0.6 | 74th |
| 2024-25playoffs | BOS | 11 | 1,307 | −13.9* | −36.1 to +8.3 | −18.0 | — |
| 2023-24 | BOS | 65 | 6,925 | +0.4 | −7.3 to +8.0 | −1.0 | 53rd |
| 2023-24playoffs | BOS | 19 | 2,213 | +8.9 | −8.0 to +25.8 | +3.2 | — |
| 2022-23 | BOS | 63 | 7,946 | −0.2 | −7.7 to +7.2 | −0.1 | 44th |
| 2022-23playoffs | BOS | 20 | 2,442 | +0.3 | −15.9 to +16.5 | −2.0 | — |
* Small sample, under 1,000 possessions on or off. When two seasons' ranges overlap, the change between them may be noise.
| Factor | On | Off | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 59.0% | 57.5% | +1.4 |
| TOV% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 0.0 |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 29.3% | −2.5 |
| FT rate | 18.3% | 18.3% | 0.0 |
| Factor | On | Off | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.8% | −0.2 |
| TOV% | 11.4% | 12.8% | −1.4 |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 28.1% | −2.4 |
| FT rate | 14.3% | 14.0% | +0.2 |
Diff is in percentage points. For opponent offense, green means opponents did worse with him on the floor.
| Zone | Share on | Off | FG% on | Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 25% | 27% | 70% | 71% |
| Short mid | 18% | 19% | 46% | 45% |
| Long mid | 8% | 9% | 46% | 41% |
| Corner 3 | 12% | 10% | 44% | 43% |
| Above-break 3 | 37% | 36% | 39% | 37% |
| Zone | Share on | Off | FG% on | Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 26% | 26% | 64% | 64% |
| Short mid | 24% | 24% | 46% | 41% |
| Long mid | 10% | 10% | 39% | 44% |
| Corner 3 | 8% | 8% | 33% | 40% |
| Above-break 3 | 32% | 32% | 36% | 35% |
Every team shot while he was on the floor, not only his own. Rim is under 4 feet, short mid is 4 to 14 feet.
Team net rating in each combination of the two on or off the floor. Green is better, red is worse, and a dashed cell has under 100 possessions. The teammates he shared the most time with come first.
Teammates who play a bigger share of the floor when Horford sits. Their play shapes his off number, so a strong backup shrinks his swing.
34% → 55%4,637 poss
14% → 32%2,700 poss
6% → 19%1,601 poss
1% → 12%1,040 poss
37% → 47%3,986 poss
Share of team possessions each one plays. The bar runs from 0 to 100%.
| Lineup | Poss | ORtg | DRtg | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown · Tatum · White · Horford · Holiday | 1,253 | 122.8 | 117.7 | +5.1 |
| Brown · Tatum · White · Horford · Porzingis | 489 | 129.8 | 109.3 | +20.4 |
| Tatum · Pritchard · Hauser · Horford · Holiday | 393 | 128.1 | 112.2 | +15.9 |
| Tatum · White · Horford · Holiday · Porzingis | 369 | 123.1 | 114.8 | +8.4 |
| Brown · White · Hauser · Horford · Porzingis | 320 | 121.2 | 101.3 | +20.0 |
| Brown · White · Horford · Holiday · Porzingis | 231 | 133.6 | 119.1 | +14.5 |
| Brown · Tatum · Horford · Holiday · Porzingis | 203 | 123.3 | 109.0 | +14.3 |
| Tatum · Kornet · Pritchard · Horford · Holiday | 168 | 109.8 | 127.9 | −18.2 |
Ratings are points per 100 possessions, built from play-by-play with every possession tagged by the ten players on the floor. Filtered leaves out garbage time and possessions that start with 2 seconds or less on the clock. Garbage time is the closing run of a fourth quarter with two or fewer starters on the floor and a lead of at least 25 with more than 9 minutes left, 20 with 6 to 9 minutes left, or 10 inside 6 minutes. Clutch follows the NBA definition: the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime with the score within five.
Teammate and opponent quality average each player's season DRBL/100 over the possessions they played. It shows whether someone's minutes came with stronger lineups or against them. Players without a DRBL rating are left out of the average. Playoff splits use the same regular-season ratings and have no league rank, since playoff teams play anywhere from 4 to 28 games.
Luck-adjusted sets opponents' 3-point and free-throw percentages to league average, since defenses shape those shots but have little say in whether they fall. The range covers about 95% of the outcomes you would get from possession-to-possession noise alone.
On/off follows the whole lineup. Teammates, opponents and the players who replace him all move it, so read it as context for a player's value. It does not measure that value by itself.