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| 55.2% |
$185.6M over 4 seasons through 2029-30 · $185.6M guaranteed
Projected surplus
-$116.2M
80% range -$180.0M to +$5.9M
Estimated worth
$69.4M
Against $185.6M in salary
Among contracts
3rd percentile
By total surplus, of 406 we can estimate
Paid more than he's projected to be worth in every season. The loss grows as his salary rises.
| Season | Salary | Est. worth | 80% range | Surplus | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | $41.8M | $16.0M | $1.3M–$43.4M | -$25.8M | — |
| 2027-28 | $44.8M | $17.2M | $1.4M–$46.9M | -$27.7M | — |
| 2028-29 | $47.9M | $17.9M | $1.4M–$49.3M | -$30.1M | — |
| 2029-30 | $51.0M | $18.4M | $1.5M–$51.9M | -$32.7M | — |
Worth is projected from DRBL wins over 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 (28,803 possessions). Surplus is worth minus salary, after options.
Signed 5-yr/$224M contract July 8, 2024.
Worth is what his projected DRBL wins would cost on the open market. We count wins above a minimum-salary player in the same minutes and price them at what teams paid per DRBL win from 2020-21 to 2025-26: 9.8% of the cap, about $16.2M in 2026-27.
Projections weight his last 3 seasons 3, 2 and 1, newest first, and pull toward what players at his salary usually produce, then adjust for age. Playing time comes from recent minutes, age and salary, since teams play the players they pay. A season lost to injury still pulls the playing time down.
Surplus is worth minus salary. A team can always bench a player, so worth never drops below the minimum salary. A player option leaves the team only the downside, because he walks when he could earn more. A team option or a non-guaranteed year leaves only the upside.
To test it, we refit the model three times, each with only the seasons through 2022-23, 2023-24 or 2024-25, valued what players were actually paid afterward, and compared with what they did. The typical miss the next season was 0.91 wins, against 1.09 for assuming a player repeats his last season. Three seasons out it was 1.18 wins, against 1.54. 12% of players beat the top of the range. Fewer than 2% fell below the bottom, since worth can't drop under the minimum salary.
Cap figures after 2026-27 assume 5.8% growth a year, the recent average. The percentile compares total surplus across the 406 current contracts we can estimate.
Closest 2025-26 profiles, historical lookalikes across eras, and nearest comps by metric. This is not a new rating. Switch chips to change the lens.
Closest profiles this season
Why AST% 0 · DRBL D 0 · DRBL O 0
Why TRB% -27 · TS -15 · USG +10
Why TRB% -35 · WAR1 +13 · DRBL O +11
Naz Reid2025-26Why AST% -41 · TS -11 · WAR1 +9
Closest profiles historically
Why WAR1 +11 · AST% -11 · TRB% +11
Why TRB% +24 · AST% -11 · TS +3
Why DRBL D -37 · DRBL O +20 · TS -8
Profile distance is the average percentile gap across impact, true shooting, usage, assist rate, rebound rate, and DRBL O/D when present. Lower gap is closer. Other chips are nearest on that one stat. Open full player compare
